Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 0.577696 0.669581 0.768253 0.881735 1.008274 1.144662 1.302402
2025-03-16 0.423668 0.539659 0.673410 0.837707 1.032677 1.255221 1.526922
2025-03-23 0.335464 0.467880 0.631170 0.844185 1.111303 1.431631 1.840916
2025-03-30 0.244919 0.377261 0.552652 0.796213 1.119137 1.525671 2.068337
2025-04-06 0.183764 0.313565 0.498550 0.771609 1.153291 1.655901 2.353941
2025-04-13 0.135198 0.257464 0.445503 0.740812 1.175694 1.773714 2.635938
2025-04-20 0.105427 0.223543 0.418915 0.743851 1.245384 1.961895 3.028968
2025-04-27 0.079952 0.190327 0.387406 0.734893 1.296837 2.130009 3.409842
2025-05-04 0.062446 0.166852 0.367664 0.741770 1.373268 2.341426 3.870065
2025-05-11 0.048063 0.145122 0.346666 0.743372 1.441639 2.547050 4.338330
2025-05-18 0.033727 0.117954 0.309183 0.709679 1.447837 2.657573 4.672866
2025-05-25 0.022631 0.093481 0.270814 0.667306 1.433446 2.733567 4.959630
2025-06-01 0.016237 0.079072 0.251627 0.661306 1.487121 2.932062 5.465541
2025-06-08 0.011080 0.065123 0.229395 0.644968 1.520006 3.099308 5.934945
2025-06-15 0.008492 0.058681 0.224573 0.666064 1.627880 3.405681 6.655874
2025-06-22 0.005376 0.046896 0.200868 0.639163 1.637156 3.538862 7.095777
2025-06-29 0.003534 0.038958 0.185465 0.628975 1.679435 3.735317 7.657391
2025-07-06 0.002180 0.031580 0.168613 0.611312 1.703397 3.899566 8.173383
2025-07-13 0.001505 0.027713 0.162488 0.621031 1.788639 4.186180 8.922989
2025-07-20 0.000956 0.023488 0.152964 0.619169 1.847392 4.425796 9.601581
2025-07-27 0.000638 0.020707 0.148116 0.630119 1.937491 4.733853 10.422503
2025-08-03 0.000402 0.017956 0.141927 0.635663 2.015315 5.022570 11.222619
2025-08-10 0.000191 0.013983 0.126974 0.609278 2.011032 5.142702 11.711899